Remembering PRESTAGS

The Triumph of Logic

Readers of this blog have witnessed the torture of logic over the years, so it might be time to revisit its basics, which I think we all agree is vital for a good argument. I believe we have all studied logic, but let's review the basics of Aristotelian logic:

In summary, from those whose youth was a long time ago, you start with your observations to derive facts. You can then deduce new facts to build theorems. However, you must always beware of any regress of reasons, where your beliefs interfere with your ability to follow the track of reason.

Thus, if you have discovered that A => B, and B => C, then you can be certain that A => C. I prefer the mathematical notation as it reveals the basics: You can write A => B as ~A v B: "not A or B". That shows that they only false statement is B is false and A is true. Every other state of A and B returns a true statement. In particular, if B is true, there is no way to predict whether A is true or false.

The famous test is "If the bird is a swan, the bird is coloured white". Thanks to the age of exploration that followed the age of reason, we know this deduction to be false. Yet, every European would have suspected it as true for thousands of years until the eighteenth century. The statement did not become false at that time; it was always false. What changed was that more facts became available. So except in the field of Pure Mathematics, every belief is one piece of evidence away from becoming false.

Einstein spoke with clever irony when he quipped:

So let us revisit some past statements and test their logic.

I would struggle to support anything coming out of the Russian government right now

Can this statement be true? Members of the Russian army has been charged with committing brutal acts during their illegal invasion of the Ukraine. These charges include rape, murder, robbery, targeting of civilians and indiscriminate use of long range munitions. If proven, the Russian army will have demonstrated themselves to be evil, by the Judeo-Christian definition. Does this mean that all Russians are evi?. No. In fact, many Russians have protested again the inhumanity of the invasion, and have been punished. Does this mean that all members of the Russian army are evil? No. In fact, many Russian prisoners of war in the Ukraine have openly spoken of their confusion as to why they were even attacking, and their relief at surrendering. (Of course, you must assume they are trying to paint themselves as less culpable of crimes than their commanders, but the consistency of that message suggests that it may be true. Again, it is not proven true.)

Who murdered all these civilians in Bucha?

However, the evidence of rape, murder of looting is inescapable. Python had the experience of being part of a murder conviction a decade ago: five men ran up a street, four walked back and those four were found guilty of murder via a mechanism called Joint Criminal Enterprise, even though we never worked out which one stabbed the victim.

In the Ukraine, a poorly led army charged in and hideous crimes happened. An Australian court would have no trouble reaching a Joint Criminal Enterprise.

Hang on Python; gotcha; how do you reach the assertion that the Russian Army was poorly led? Fair cop - that is an inference not a deduction

• the Russian army is ten times the size of the Ukrainian army
• the Russian military equipment was modern, which the Ukrainians were equipped with Soviet-era arms
• the Russian army had numerical and qualitative superiority in every type of munition, plane and tank
• the Russian army had the benefit of surprise

and yet within a couple of weeks, before significant Western munitions could arrive and certainly before the Ukrainian militia could be trained in its use, the Russian offenses were blunted. I can see no other cause. Perhaps the better motivation of the Ukrainian patriot, but again that is a matter of leadership. Somewhat like Putin, I struggle to see the difference between a Russian and a Ukrainian; it is not like one is flesh and blood and the other are alien lizards from the inside of our moon.

I close this section to note that despite the bodies, despite the evidence of violated women, despite the destroyed apartment blocks and power stations, the Russian government has not just denied that their army is culpable, but has defending their actions. If the crimes are established, this government has made itself complicit by covering up the criminality of their agents.

So, can I claim that the statement "I would struggle to support anything coming out of the Russian government right now" is logical. Yes, absolutely I can. I think it is very likely that:

• The Russian Army is committing war crimes
• The Russian government is aware of these crimes
• The Russian government is trying to obfuscate to distract world opinion from their behaviour

It is implausible, but entirely possible that there are no war crimes and I am wrong in my suspicions. However, it is also possible that I am completely correct and am justly calling out evil when I see it. While evidence is being gathered, I have to act on what I know: crimes are happening and the Russian army is the most likely suspect. While I struggle to support anything coming out of the Russian government right now, it does not mean I would reject everything. If the Russian government were to made a statement that their invasion of Ukraine was illegal, that they shall leave  by the end of the year and pay from the reconstruction of damaged Ukrainian infrastructure, I would warmly welcome such a statement and openly congratulate them. In summary:

• I suspect the Russian government is still continuing down the path of evil,
• I will continue to listen to their statements
• Should they acknowledge their error and seek to do good, I will applaud them.

Finally, let's deal with the dead cat.

It is a common rhetorical technique when an argument is going against you, to "throw a dead cat on the table and say 'Look!'". Everyone runs around trying to get rid of it and forgets the topic. So, is it logical for Python to discuss his views about the evils being wrought in Ukraine when there are evil pedophiles grooming children? Yes it is. All evils should be condemned. However, humans should only be condemned when the evidence has been fairly tested. Just as I cannot assert at this time that the Russian Army is guilty of war crimes, neither can I assert that any individual is a pedophile until it is proven, no matter how much I might suspect them. Some agnostic friends have asked me how I can remain in the Catholic Church when so many priests have been found guilty of pedophilia or covering it up. I accept the criticism, but using logic, I can deduce that just because many Catholics are guilty of this crime, it is not a Catholic behaviour, and I can support the Church in eliminating the scourge.

Logic can triumph!

ATG game options

Whenever one of us falls on their sword, they must suggestion specifically how the next game will differ from the last. Which options will you change? Why? Do you expect it to make it harder or easier for the AI?

You must also specify how hard you want the AI to play and which powers we all should be:

We are allowed to try a mix of AI levels, so we have some truely comical experiences as well as some truely nasty ones!

Magnificent Paintings - Pavel Ryzhenko (1970-2014)

A link to these great paintings and more

 

The time is tomorrow!

The Mueller investigation gets too close. To deflect, The Chump declares that Iran has a nuclear bomb and must be stopped. Saudi Arabia will not miss an opportunity like this and calls for a coalition. NATO is called upon and under pressure from Saudi Arabia also joins the coalition. Russia claims there is no evidence of nuclear weapons in Iran, and Puti visits to declare support and to appear bare-chested on a camel! In an extraordinary coup, he offers to declare a Kurdish homeland and gets the Peshmerga on board. Then in the coup of all coups for Iran, the Shite government of Iraq declares for the Eurasian union!

The Iraqi army is not interested in this alliance and deserts en masse, leaving mostly militia in the country. Only an under-strength corps is left although volunteers are flooding in. The Syrians have no choice but to join the Eurasian union too although their army has still not recovered from the civil war.

With Syria in, and no one left neutral who might be offended, Israel declares for the coalition.

This is the latest Modern War simulation that looks at how things might go pear shaped fast in the middle east. The game postulate is that NATO and a coalition of Sunni states will take on Iran backed by an adventurist, ascendant Russia. It simulates corps sized forces with air support struggling with patchwork alliances across the middle east. You can see on the right the US Marine Corps ready to do Basrah again.

The coalition airforce is at the ready with cruise missiles to kick off with a Shock and Awe campaign to take total control of the skies. The combat tables slightly back their success, although the Russian anti-air capabilities will leave the airforce quite worn down after this. I'll left you know how it plays out shortly.

What is interesting in this game is that number of special forces (also right) both sides have, although the Russians seem to have more.

The western side of the map is most interesting. The Russians will be very tempted to take Turkey out fast. This will give them a rail corridor to Syria, that will be under pressure from Israel quickly. The Kurds at a bit of spice to this. They will never leave Kurdistan, but can attack out. Mostly they can damage Iraq and Armenia, but as they have aligned with the Russians in this scenario (a die roll before the game begins), they will mostly be a no go zone.

Spetz will be pleased to see that the game includes Russia's new fifth generation fighters, and they have the same strength as the US planes. Unfortunately, as NATO has far more planes, I suspect they will not last very long. They might do some damage first.

The wild card is the Islamist rebels, that can fight for both sides. You can see the remains of the Syrian rebels north of Dar az Zawi above. There are many such counters that can spawn in all sorts of inconvenient places.

The beauty of these classic war game board games is the level of realism built into the game systems. They let you reflect on the way the world is in a way ATG and Empire never do.

What were they thinking?

2017 was a very good year for me at the office. I had successfully brought my Manila posting to the originally requested outcome and received my best bonus ever for my development work. I had also written a product that falls into the top five best products I have ever written - largely unsung at the time, it has become a major selling feature late last year. In recognition of my hard work, I knew a deserved a lovely piece of crockery in the kitchen. Unfortunately, the kitchen is brimming with lovely pieces of crockery such that they have overflowed into the dining room cupboards, which are also now full. This left me on the horns of a dilemma, so I had to go with my third option (the second being membership to the art gallery, but when would I find the time!), a subscription to everything coming out of Strategy and Tactics press, at an eye watering US$1000 for two years.

Reviewing it now, I think it was a good decision - I had many evenings of pleasant reading and some great maps and counters to review. From top to bottom:

• the venerable Strategy and Tactics, now up to issue #314,
• Modern War, that provides interesting insights into the current tensions of the world, mostly from a military perspective, which you rarely find the in the news
• World at War, which tries to be S&T but for only World War 2, so perhaps the least interesting of the set, but perhaps the most believable of the games
• Strategy and Tactics Quarterly, the new kid on the block, with a lot of articles on just one topic, no games, but a poster.

A feast of new games, and the anticipation of finding room in the attic for 18 more in 2019. I have failed in one respect, I have not punched the counters of any of them last year. I resolve to so this year. Let the readers of this auspicious blog pausing their eating and spider hunting to hold me so accountable.

The observant would ask why there is a gap? The answer is simple: if a US Civil War game arrives in your mail box, there is a board room I know of where it can be swapped for a Scotch, for some people simply cannot have enough US Civil War games!

And the winner is

I think the best read of them was the Quarterly of Caesar, and how a Roman of modest means, but the highest ambition, can break into the Cursus Honorum. (The article on that was fascinating - young aristocrats were expected to move from government post to post building up an understanding of how the Roman state worked until they reached the role of consul. It gave the state a large pool of experienced leaders to fall back on in times of emergency, and something to consume the energies of the young. The article went to far as to suggest that Rome's resilience during the second Carthaginian War was due to this.) The poster showed Caesar's marches during the Gallic Wars and the Civil war, and is on my wall.

The magazine about Stalingrad was a close second. I do not read a lot of WW2 history, but had heard of this one (and watched the excellent "Enemy at the Gates" with Spetz). Stalingrad was never the objective of the the drive into the Caucasus. The original plan was to get close enough so Germany artillery could interdict the railway and interfere with Stalin's transfer of troops and oil. One of the reasons given for the diversion was that Hitler had become a drug addict. There was a doctor for the German elite who used to mix his own remedies for the wealthy who felt they had lost their vim. These remedies contained stimulants and narcotics. Hitler had appointed him as a personal physician at the time, and soon developed an obsession that a capture of Stalingrad would equate to a defeat of  Stalin.

It was matched with a World at War article where you can attempt to replay the the campaign. You have all that lovely oil to the south and boring Stalingrad to the north. However, the action chits you have to pull each turn keeps pulling you south. I like the action chit idea as it adds a lot of colour to otherwise boring Panzer corps and Guard armies.

An honourable mention goes the World War 3 Quarterly for all the bits that happened when I was little that nearly resulted in me not growing big. I am still reading that one.

Puti-phobia

Puti features in two of the Modern War series. There is much interest in his possible future actions, but the general consensus is that he is more interested with disrupting the US Hegemony to create a series of Russian based alliances, than territorial acquisitions. There is more fear about these alliances backfiring and drawing Russia into a war they did not intend and the US into it. This game, Puti Moves South, looks at the Stans south of Russia and north of Persia and Afghanistan. There is oil and gas there that mostly travels through Russia so disruption to that supply could draw in the Russian army. Interestingly with this game, at the start of each game you roll a die for each power to decide whether it is in the Russian Coalition or US/NATO aligned. Every game would be very different. The latest Modern War, The War on Terror, does the same in the Middle East. It means that every play of the game would be quite different. I think this is one of the games I should set up.

Rise of the Solitaire games

Six of these games are solitaire. I should set up a few this year. I have played a couple in the past, but the issue is that there is no marvellously clever play you can make to give you the game. You are grinding through taking objectives that weaken the strength of the enemy play system, while having some flexibility for random events. That said, I should try them as some game systems are brilliant. Perhaps there is a new John Michael Young other there.

The most intriguing of the game is submarine warfare in the Pacific. Unlikely the Atlantic, submarines featured in navel battles. This game lets you play as the Japanese or the US.

Perhaps this article is better named "What was I thinking?" I stand deprived of a new piece of crockery in my kitchen by pure obsession!

 

Paccheri With Pistachio Pesto

Rome, Italy.

December 2017.

A computer error brings the future 20 years closer

I have seen many computer errors in my life, and been responsible for most of the ones I have seen, but this one is astonishing.

0.712 x $3.50 = $29.90

Or $10 per apple; the price in Anno Domino 2038. I am off to Woolies this morning with a "please explain". I am glad I didn't buy this from Coles: http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-19/coles-stores-nationwide-shutdown/10137418

Of course, there is another explanation. Prior to executing his coup d'etat, has he colluded with Russia to hack our supermarkets?

Even Sharper

Who is Maypис Maнeши?

What can possibly be in this package?

Why is there a black van parked outside my home?

Real Men

Eat double size sausage rolls for breakfast. And on a cool plate what's more.

 

Who Would Have Thought

Who would have thought we would live in a world where the greatest threat of nuclear war comes from psychopaths in the United States. Where the US used its period as 'sole superpower' to meddle in the affairs of countless nations, to destroy entire countries through military force or economic sanctions, and all for the enrichment of a cadre of corporations.

Who would have thought the United States would eviscerate its own constitution, destroy freedom of expression, and promote the most vicious of dictators and terrorists around the world. Who would have thought extra judicial murder on a global scale, and the promotion of perversion of every kind, would become the hallmark of the United States.

Who would have thought Russia would become the Christian nation, and a champion of decency and international law.

Who would have thought the United States would turn the entire world financial system into a giant debt based Ponzi scheme for the enrichment of the 0.1%.

It is now so bad that I actually want the economic crash to come suddenly, before the lunatics in Washington start a war in an attempt to hide their culpability for economic destruction.

 

It's All In The Walk

It's all in the walk. Real men walk like men.

 

Jerks walk like jerks.

Interesting Comparison

An interesting comparison. If the defence budget figures are correct, Russia is definitely getting more bang for buck.

And you would have to prefer the KGB education over the Jesuit education any day of the week.

Constantia et Virtute

Lethal Aircraft Technology

We are accustomed to assuming that the United States has the best military technology in everything, and is invincible.

This is not true. Military success is a combination of technology, training, numbers of active units, tactics and many other matters.

The United States air force has some great aircraft, and lots of them, but is no longer ahead of Russia in terms of highly advanced aircraft flown by true professionals in large numbers in Europe. The US has been busy bombing the crap out of second and third world countries for the last several decades, but it has to be half a century since it has encountered any serious opposition.

Even Western military experts agree that the Russian SU-34, and its successor the SU-35 Flanker, are a match for American aircraft, and there will shortly be hundreds of these craft in the professional air force of Russia, and then of China and India. The US has more advanced and stealthy aircraft on the drawing board, but production of these craft is some time away, and Russia also has brilliant aircraft engineers working on their next generation of fighters.

We also tend to assume that only the United States has a strategic bomber capability. This is also not true, and Russia has not only  TU-95 "Bear" bombers but also the TU-160 "Blackjack" strategic and nuclear capable bomber. The Blackjack is the largest jet-powered, swing wing combat aircraft ever produced and includes the most powerful jet engines fitted to any military aircraft. This bomber is many times larger than the American B-1 bomber though no less lethal, and it has a better range and larger munitions capability.

No European nation has a match for Russia's TU-160, and the Western Europeans should think very carefully about their support for Obama's aggressive and lie-laden stance against Russia. Russia is no third world nation, and has massive air capability.

PS Russia also has the world's largest military transport plane, the AN-124 Antonov (named after a legendary giant).

And, when it comes to helicopters, Russia is also up there with the best of them. In particular, the Ka-52 Alligator which is an advanced military helicopter that can fly day and night and in all weathers. It is designed to eliminate armoured and non-armoured ground targets, low-speed aerial targets and enemy frontline and tactical reserve forces, and can also fly surveillance missions and be used to direct a team of attack helicopters.

Left Man, Right Man

Both men used the understanding of warfare as a key part of their income earning. The man on the left, John Michael Young,  expressed his knowledge in terms of great wargames that leaves you with an understanding of the challenges and surprises you can face in battle. The awesome PRESTAGS series shows many battles where the mighty have offered battle full of confidence that it will be their crowning achievement, only to see their dreams fade in a field of other people's blood.

The man on the right has initiated two wars with the same confidence as the past and largely forgotten commanders. His limited wars (unlike my failed Outreach strategy), brought more territory into Russia, but has not yet solved any real problems.

Its the old trick to winning a few wars to keep the malcontents quiet and the focus of the needs of the people. As Churchill quipped in his 1938 book "While England Slept", "Dictators ride to and fro on tigers from which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry."

Do not get me wrong, I am not saying Putin is much worse than the US or European foreign policy...

... but that the focus on limited war to achieve political goals is morally unacceptable, and ultimately will fail, because limited war is very expensive and doesn't really change anything.

Ultimately, the piper must be paid!

Left Man, Right Man

Lies and Bombings

The man on the left tried to start military intervention and aerial bombing in Syria by lying about the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons. The man on the right exposed the lie, revealed evidence that Syrian rebels had used chemical weapons, and prevented military intervention based on a lie.

Lies and Invasions

The man on the left succeeded in invading and decimating a country, Iraq, based on the lie that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Iraq is far removed from the United States. The man on the left has an IQ of 59 and struggles to play 'Pin the Tail on the Donkey'. The man on the right has only ever invaded northern Georgia in defence of the Abkhazia Republic which was attacked by Georgian forces. Abkhazia is directly within Russia's sphere of influence. The man on the right has an IQ of 132 and plays chess.

Democracy and Constitutionalism

The man on the left overthrew the democratically elected government of Egypt, crushed the Arab spring, and restored the nation to harsh and corrupt rule by a military oligarchy. The man on the right has undergone three successions of power to positions as President or Prime Minister in accordance with the nation's democratic constitution.

Democracy and Self Determination

The man on the left used a CIA colour revolution, and snipers murdering policemen, to overthrow the democratically elected government in the Ukraine before the next election was due, and replaced the government with a far right coalition of billionaires. The man on the left achieved self determination for Crimea by holding a referendum in which there was 83.1 percent voter turnout and 96.77 percent voted in favour of integration of the autonomous republic of Crimea into the Russian Federation (exactly as had happened with Kosovo with the full support of the West).

Freedom of Religion

The man on the left is afraid of religion and leads a regime that openly persecutes religious groups, especially Christians and Buddhists. The man on the right supports religious tolerance and has overseen the rebuilding of Cathedrals destroyed by communists and a revival of Orthodox Christianity.

Lobby Groups

The man on the left has shown weakness in the face of the world's strongest lobby group, the homosexual lobby, and is seeking changes to practices that will expose people including children to erroneous and dangerous ideas about sexuality and family. The man on the right has enacted an anti-propaganda law that forbids the dissemination of deviant information to minors.

Terrorism

The man on the left supplies arms and training to Syrian terrorists, which terrorists have formed ISIS, and which terrorists continue to defect to ISIS on a regular basis. The man on the right supports the Syrian regime, which is the only nation state undertaking direct military action on the ground against ISIS.

Religious Values

The (wo)man on the left gives support and publicity to feminist rock groups like Pussy Riot and Femen that openly commit blasphemy (including desecration of the Cathedral of Christ the Savior which was rebuilt after destruction by the communists, and the chain sawing of a crucifix) and which use openly satanic imagery in performances. The man on the right enforces laws against hooliganism and achieved a conviction against Pussy Riot for hooliganism promoted by religious hatred.

Federation and Liberty

The man on the left oversees the EU which has become an uncontrollable apparatus which suffocates the liberties of its member nations, and drowns its citizens in red tape and political correctness. The man on the right supports a genuine federation which respects the liberties and rights of its members, and has acted to deconstruct unnecessary bureaucracy and inefficiencies.

Popularity

The man on the left has a personal approval rating of only 29%, and among his own parliamentary colleagues recently survived a spill motion (in which there was no declared alternative leadership contender) by 61 to 39. The man on the right has a personal approval rating of 87%.

Oil and Oligarchy

The man on the left has used the oil wealth of his nation to sustain a corrupt and medieval oligarchy, and to funnel wealth into the hands of a small group of (mostly related) families. The man on the right has broken the post-communism oil oligarchs, even jailing some of them,  and has directed the wealth from oil and natural gas towards the country as a whole.

Economic Development

The man on the left has used unsustainable loans from the World Bank to impoverished nations to create a cycle of debt, and has then imposed austerity and so called 'conditionalities' that require these nations to repay interest before health and education expenditure. Nations in West Africa in particular, now subject to an Ebola outbreak, saw their health infrastructure degraded before the outbreak. The man on the right has been instrumental in creating the BRICS nations' development bank to make sustainable loans to third world nations to build infrastructure.

European Independence

The (wo)man on the left has acted as a puppet of United States interests and has failed to develop a genuine European foreign policy with the capacity to withstand the unfair and dangerous demands of the United States, a dictator supporting nation which is grasping to maintain a position as the world's last superpower. The man on the right has acted with national independence and desires a European solidarity that is independent from the United States and Wall Street bankers.

Health

The man on the left is an elitist prat who maintains health and longevity by transfusions of children's blood and by special treatment in a health system which leaves other people his age to die in hospital with 'no extraordinary measures'. The man on the right maintains health by exercise and eating vegetables.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, President of Russia, a political giant in a world of cheats and knaves.