Remembering PRESTAGS

Lockdown Bakery Delivery

Bakery delivery arrived early.

In time to make ham and cheese croissants for breakfast.

Old and Fat but Happy

I wonder why?

I had a fantastic birthday.

Sunday Morning Breakfast

But as they say, better out than in.

Exploding Yoghurt

These yoghurts were out of date and swollen - I had taken them out to squeeze them into the compost bin ...

I was talking on the phone when behind me I heard this crackling noise - I turned to witness the exploded yoghurt squirting itself all the way across the sink - about 4-5 feet I reckon.

the splash pattern shows how much pressure it shot out with ...

you can see it made it all the way across the sink ...

the last 'macro' adventures of 2016 ...

that sounded dramatic didn't it. when in fact it just happened that these pics were taken on 31 December 2016, downloaded and mildly post-processed on 1 January 2017 and uploaded to this blog on the same day. Nikon D3300, Nikkor 85mm f3.5 micro, Nikon DB600 flash.

Started with a mudwasp under the laundry window ledge - an accidental subject, as I noticed it fly under the ledge. He/she was not a cooperative subject and wouldn't stay still, and if I tried to get closer flew off. Hard to get and keep focus hand held. 

Then I noticed a fly on the laundry window frame. he/she was much more cooperative, and I did get to the minimum focus distance to get the maximum macro. Focus was assisted by being able to lean on the wall,

All shots taken with external flash and with aperture very small (ie f26-f32 - narrow lens opening to get maximum depth of field to try to get the whole insect in focus). These are what I think were the best ones. 

MUD  WASP

as close as I could get with 85mm

 

crop to get balance of detail and noise. If I zoomed in more digitally it starts to look poor - suspect I couldn't hold still enough and have actually not focussed on the wasp's head but the mud nest / back leg.

As an aside, I couldn't find a pic of this compact black wasp to try to get an ID on (but I'm sure someone has described it ...). The mud wasp that does come up in searches is slim and with yellow bits -  http://www.ozanimals.com/Insect/Mud-Dauber-Wasp/Sceliphron/sp.html

The little mud construction probably contains paralysed spiders.

 

FLY

For scale, context - fly on side of wound out window. Frame is 1.5 inches (38mm) thick, so the fly is maybe 12mm long.

 

pre-crop jpeg, processed from RAW tweaking exposure, sharpness

 

crop of above image (less than 100%). It is not the blowfly Lucilia cuprina but something else. - I think it is Calliphora augur - the lesser brown blowfly - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calliphora_augur 

.

true macro shot - as close as I could get, so no cropping but 1:1 reproduction in the image frame. The fly flew away after this - I obviously got too close - front of the lens is maybe 1-2 inches away from the fly. Processed for exposure (reduced -1.0 EV, or 1 'stop')

I am pretty happy with this shot, though the framing is flawed. 

 

And the images give the joy of the splendour of creation - Benedicamus Domino !!

Exposure and high contrast scenes

From a discussion I was having with Paul, I played around a little with high contrast scenes. He has some images where the straight out of camera jpeg has not brought up the detail in a dark area (eg a dark statue) against a strong back lit background.

On Nikon dSLRs, a setting called 'active D lighting' became available for application in shooting (as opposed to post processing, whether in camera or on downloaded files).

So, I was taking some shots of the fowls with the D40x - it doesn't have ADL option for shooting but it can be applied in camera after the shot. A couple are below, and it shows how powerful this (software) application is, and also illustrates the problems that any photographic medium has in capturing a whole scene the way our eyes see it, or more accurately as our brains post-process the incoming light to 'pull up' shadow detail.

So, below  a couple of comparison shots - / + ADL. I suspect that in Paul's Lumix FZ1000 there is a setting analagous to ADL, probably with different levels of application. [He might have to resort to reading the manual >:-o).

OK, the examples

but

The photo medium can only capture the light that is there. If you take the film medium, the sensitivity to light is uniform across the film negative - and adjusting exposure will affect the whole area uniformly. That is, a whole exposure adjustment can only be applied uniformly to the whole exposure - if the qualitative and quantitative difference in amount of light between to parts of a scene is too great, the physics per se doesn't allow for getting both parts perfectly exposed for detail.

But our brains do this all the time - segements of our field of view get post-processed to enable us to see both the full lit and the shadow with acuity. Computers can, thanks to clever programmers like Python, detect the contrast areas and locally adjust the exposure. In the old film days, you could do this in the dark room with simple physical tricks such as waving a piece of paper over an overexposed area as the negative was being processed ie between the light coming through the negative and the photographic paper being exposed to get the print.

 

 

Another way of getting at this is where you 'tell' the camera to 'meter' the light to inform the exposure it will apply - shutter speed, aperture (and with digital, ISO). The standard default is 'matrix' or 'averaged' metering - the light meter / software tries to balance all of the incoming light. Then there is 'centre weighted' - the light meter / software takes more account of the area where the light level is read (typically the focus point - I guess face recognition will have some priority - my dSLRs don't have it or I don't turn it on). Then there is 'spot' metering - the light meter / software meters just on the small focus area. Spot allows a small subject to be exposed 'correctly' even if the surrounding scene is very dark or very bright. But, as above, the metering is a physical adjustment affecting the amount of light hitting the sensor or film, not a software interpretation of the incoming light.

Yet another way is 'exposure compensation' - often has a dedicated button with a +/- decal on it - you can dial in how many 'stops' (more precisely electron volts, EV) more or less than the camera's meter thinks the 'correct' exposure is - how much light gets let in. Generally goes in 1/3 EV steps - eg +0.3, +0.7 etc.

On my cameras, choosing metering area and exposure compensation are NOT available in the AUTO modes - needs to be in Manual (I rarely use, except for moon shots), Aperture priority (I use most - set the 'f stop' - how wide open is the lens, how much light gets let in, also affects depth of field), Shutter priority (how long the shutter is open, I use when I want to ensure a fast shutter to freeze motion and/or avoid effects of camera shake), Program mode (I don't use this much but its a bit like A and S).

And having mentioned moon shots, this is a classic example of needing to balance a really bright object in a really dark background - if you don't meter on the moon you generally just get a 'white out'.

So, the moral of this story is:

Bachelor food

Kangaroo burgers, pasta with fried onion and garlic + parmesan cheese and pepper, fried cabbage and soy sauce, steamed brocolli and carrot.

Plus laptop. What else do you need?

Why am I angry? - Is Toxoplasma gondii - things to me?

So there is an article in today's Australian and on New Scientist

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2082105-explosive-road-rage-like-anger-linked-to-parasite-spread-by-cats/

I learned about this parasite, Toxoplasma gondii, at uni. It's life cycle is in the guts of cats (or other predators I guess) and the brains of prey (mice). Guess what? People get it too - in the brain.

It was well known that mice infected with it were risk takers, and the evolutionary explanation is that it makes them more likely to get predated.
So this is interesting research. I wonder if I have T. gondii sitting in my amygdala (bottom reptilian fight/flight brain)?

I have lived with cats on and off for many years, including cleaning up their messes.

Maybe I am the mouse that roars? Or am I just a viking trapped in the 21st century?

 

The sometime beserker in Eric the Viking

T. gondii life cycle

cyst full of T. gondii - who needs science fiction?

Brain scan - not mine, but is it the same?

 

First Experience of a "A World Divided"

Well as promised, I have had a look at "A World Divided", Thygo's choice for a PBEM. I think it would be a go-er.

Above you can see my second attempt at playing as Nazi Germany. (My second after reading the production rules, cos I totally stuffed those the first time around.) I have just formed Vichy France and have just found an unescorted convoy to attack. There has been a pro-Allied coup in Yugoslavia which troubles me greatly, but as it was announced with a cool video off the happy general who has deposed Prince Paul, I forgave it completely.

Combat is relatively straightforward - you move lots of your boys into their boys club house and roll a die. Well, although there actually are dice thrown in the game, you do not get to throw them, but you get told the bad news afterwards. (Note below that commander Brendan Mahoney was in charge of the air defence of the German infantry and could not do better than a two!)

The rules are complex on how combat is calculated, but it is inspired by scissor-paper-stone. Infantry is good against artillery which is good against armour which is good against infantry, and ditto for ships and planes. Getting certain combinations gives your bonuses, and I can see that this is where we will do a lot of learning as we play.

Your spies do help by giving your an overall view of what is happening to your entire armed services and your opponents:

You can see that with the Fall of France, although I took more losses in the battle above, I managed to destroy (second column) 25 infantry, 13 milita, 4 artillery, 3 flak, a fighter and two tactical bombers, although some of those were from Poland. The first column is interesting - these are damaged units. Effectively they lose a step, and then they run home and get repaired in the next production turn. So I can now see that for the first time in the game, the Wehrmacht is bigger than the allied forces:

(Well, except for the navy of course - the last row of air units represent carrier based aircraft.)

The second column in this display shows production, which is done as the standard spiral. Annoyingly, you do not just pay once to put a unit on the spiral and then happily wait for Christmas morning. You have to pay for it every turn it is on the spiral. This means that this turn, I will have to pause one of the goodies to pay for my various repairs.

You can see in window 1941 there is a paused armour and a heavy bomber. I think I have to pause the Bismark too, to get rid of the minus 1 next to the factory. The negative number next to the people symbol is not a problem (I think) as I have a big pool of young men willing to serve the fatherland. The little military icons at the bottom of each square shows when I would get something if I started building it now.

I can look at the value of each of my provinces from the province screen. Note that I have a bit of a partisan problem (right column) in Poland and the Low Countries, but as their race is inferior, it is not surprising that they do not know what is good for them.

The big trouble with this game is the huge number of options you have. If Paul were playing, it would be easier, I would just keep attacking him. As he is not, I am wonder what I need to do now to be able to deal with USSR and USA when they come knocking. So I am investing in my armed forces and in my airforce, so that I will at least be able to deal with the USSR.

As you can see, there are a lot more areas that I can research that I have the resources in research. The benefit of research is that it does not use manpower (in game terms) so once you have built your lot for the current recruiting pool, you put the rest into supplies and research. (Yes Paul, in this game you should buy supplies for your troops to fight with. However the game has a "ignore supplies" option just for you!)

Once interesting place you can spend your supplies on is intelligence and espionage.

The top row is your anti-espionage service, that keeps other spies at bay. Stalin's purge gives him a clear lead here. Next is the "SIGINT" rating, showing how much effort is going into knowing what the enemy will do, before they do it, giving you combat shifts. The remaining columns are just for espionage. Note Stalin's focus on what the Nazis are up to. These spies can steal research and can tell you what the other side is researching:

So what will I do next. Well, the great thing about the game rules (182 pages in PDF) is that 20 pages at the end is dedicated to what strategy each power might try. They suggest Germany can take Alexandria, if it really wants to, and if it does super research on torpedoes and subs, it can destroy the Western Alliance's shipping. Interesting.

This time, I am going to try my favourite WW2 Nazi strategy and take out Spain and then Gibraltar, to give me a Fascist Sea to play in. I look forward to Thygs coming on board so we can try different scenarios ourselves.

All is quiet on the western front

Edmund Halley set a high benchmark when he predicted the date of the arrival of a comet and the part of the sky it would appear in.  In one stroke he removed the mysticism from comets and showed how mathematics would revolutionise our lives. He did have an enormously powerful ally - the genius of Issac Newton who discovered the theory of gravity and showed how it impacted all the bodies in our solar system. However, he backed up that theory by an exhaustive search for past sightings of comets. Just pause for a second and imagine the effort that would take in 18th century England. No internet, no glossy books on comets, and no local library. In fact most of the data he trawled would have been in bizarre books of semi-religious rantings and of dubious accuracy.

How we wish that weather forecasters, political pundits and economic futurists could even approximate to the brilliant success of Edmund.

Thus I turn to us bloggers poor attempts to emulate Edmund's greatness. I note today that at the close of trading for 11 November 2015, the Dow Jones is unremarkable.

While I have little respect for the lack of insight behind this index, I do acknowledge that if the world economy collapsed, it would have a sharp downward line, as shown in the graph of the Great Depression.

So, I think we can safely conclude that the markets have not crashed and the world economy is puttering along in a generally uninspired fashion. Prediction: Rememberance Day Crash, Status: Debunked!

What about my own humble prediction a few weeks later? I promise you it does not come close to the meticulousness of Edmund's, and I suggest that is remains as a prediction mostly due to the fact that it is still a future possibility. The big problem with my prediction is that I need the US to stop pumping money into their economy before it will work. There has to be a few months for the investors to detect that their market trading investments are now worthless - it won't happen the day after the interest rates rise:

This is something I was expecting to have happened by now. If it doesn't happen before mid December, I'll have to go out and buy my copy of Yeoman the old fashioned way.

Sorry - I could not resist another picture of Peter's generals partying on my economic surpluses.

Let me finish with one more Huzzah! for a brilliant "Man in White Coat", who even knew we would see a comet in 1986!

 

Strange Carrots

The carrots recently have not been quite as they should.

I don't know whether to blame Python or Thygocanberra.

It might be Python's fault, for all his focus on the non-existent man made global warming rather than the existent man made Fukushima.

Then again, it might be Thygocanberra's fault for playing around with [can't mention the two evil letters] in the food chain.

Climate Change Update

Refugee Crisis to Worsen with Climate Change

A historic 52 million people are fleeing conflict worldwide, a trend that will intensify over the next two decades because of climate change, International Rescue Committee chief David Miliband said on Friday.

"One of the drivers of displacement and potential conflict over the next 10 to 20 years will be climate (change) - resource scarcity," said Miliband, a former United Kingdom foreign minister. "Climate change is going to compound the cocktail that's driving war and displacement."

Miliband said there were 16 million refugees and 36 million people displaced in their own countries, typically by civil war. That is the largest number of people fleeing persecution since World War Two, he said during a Reuters Newsmaker event in New York.

"Do I think the current level is a blip or a trend?" Miliband said. "I would say it's a trend."

The end of the world as they know it

Super Typhoons Projected to Increase in Strength

A study from the University of California, San Diego has found that the strength of super typhoons has increased as a result of Climate Change and will continue to increase. The world was shocked by the strength of Typhoon Hainan that struck the Philippines in 2013. This study found that these typhoons are 10% more intense than in 1970. Such storms will be 14 per cent stronger by 2100, equivalent to adding another category to the current top severity rating of 5, the study found.

Research on tropical cyclones – known as hurricanes in the Atlantic basin – has sought to identify whether factors contributing to more powerful events such as warmer sea surface temperatures might be countered by changes to ocean or atmospheric circulation that may hinder the storms' genesis or force. Warming in the top 75 metres of the oceans will dominate other influences, the researchers found.

"This projected increase in typhoon intensity is largely due to [sea surface temperatures] warming," the study found, adding that the findings are "at the high end" of previous projections.

Of course the Third Viscount of Brenchley will seize on this chart to show that on the basis of the data from 1955 to 1970, there will be no typhoons or hurricanes by 2100.

Nearly 100 Australian Species are Threatened by Climate Change

Climate change is one of the major contributors to global biodiversity loss, and plant and animal species can be affected by climate change in different ways. Some may be directly affected by sea level rise or snow melt, whereas some may lose a pollinator or prey species that they rely on.

Species that cannot move to more suitable habitats, or who have no suitable habitat left, risk becoming extinct. Understanding how each of our species is affected by climate change means we can help them survive it.

Overall, and perhaps not surprisingly, amphibians are most highly vulnerable to climate change. They have small and fragmented distributions, and rely heavily on particular moisture regimes and aquatic habitats.

The species most vulnerable to climate change was the Mountain Pygmy Possum, threatened by increased snow melt, and further habitat loss through development of ski resorts.

Once the drivers of climate change vulnerability are understood for different species, groups of species and regions, we can start to take action. Actions that are targeted to help species adapt to the changing climate and give them the best chance of surviving into the future.

Unfortunately, the US republican party are pushing to have an research on climate change defunded.

In Their Own Words

Once upon a time the climate change debate involved an assessment of the research and opinions of one set of scientists who believed that the planet was warming at an alarming rate, and another set of scientists who believed that there was no significant global warming.

The first set of scientists were very confident. They put their reputations on the line and came up with all manner of models which predicted catastrophic warming from about 1998.

The first set of scientists also had a massive advantage over the second set of scientists. The political powers that be decided the claim the planet was warming would be a fantastic excuse for economic policies to achieve a massive wealth redistribution away from ordinary people, and a wonderful excuse for more and more intervention into everyone's lives. Climate alarmism was also a great distraction form other planet wide issues that the political powers did not want ordinary people to focus on. Things like the destruction of civil liberties in an alleged war on terrorism, multiple wars and invasions (where the planet loving ruling classes use depleted uranium ammunition), and the uncontrolled environmental mega-disaster at Fukushima etc.

Indeed, the first set of scientists received massive public funding, unrestricted exposure in scientific journals, and the support of the entire mass media.

And then something happened.

There has been no global warming for 18 years, man made or otherwise.

The absence of global warming for 18 years is now so obvious and so well recorded in so many ways that even the first set of scientists are forced to admit it. And this reveals that all of their models were just science fiction.

Now in looking at alleged global warming one need only look at the first group of scientists and their own words to debunk the nonsense they have been propagating over the last two decades. It is not even necessary to defer to the second set of scientists.

Here are four of my very favourite quotes:

First, from Dr Phil Jones, the Director of the Climate Research Institute and Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia (when he is not shredding unhelpful emails) and the Global High Priest of climate change.

Oops, it has been more than 15 years now. At least he admitted it which must have been excruciating for him.

Second, Dr Hans von Storch, climate supremo from the University of Hamburg and editor of the Journal of Climate, leading propaganda vehicle for the new climate change religion.

Still a true believer, he wants to wait another 5 years. What a fanatic. Only three more years to go however.

Third, Dr Kevin Trenberth, part of the Climate Analysis Section at the USA National Centre for Atmospheric Research, one of the infamous IPCC lead authors in 1995, 2001 and 2007 and an Honorary Fellow of the Royal Society of New Zealand. This 'famous' Kiwi is best known as a one of the leaders behind the notoriously inaccurate and now debunked IPCC climate models and the inventor of the "Ocean Ate My Global Warming" theory.

It's not just a travesty, it is hilarious. I have some advice for Dr Trenberth: if you can't explain the pause you can't explain the cause. Oh, and its several years later and the ocean has still not given back its lunch.

Fourth, Professor Rowan Sutton, the Director of Climate Research at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science. Prof. Sutton was jealous of Dr Trenberth for inventing the "Ocean Ate My Global Warming" theory so he came up with the theory that the cooler weather in the UK was caused by warmer oceans, otherwise known as the "Global Warming Causes Global Cooling" theory.

Some people call it a slow-down, some call it a hiatus, some call it a pause ... come on, call it what it is. NO GLOBAL WARMING FOR 18 YEARS!

As we celebrate Easter 2015 the tragedy of the global warming fiction is that the political classes are pushing the alarmist agenda more than ever. It does not matter that the UN models have been totally discredited, and that so called climate scientists are admitting that the models were wrong, and even that so called climate scientists are admitting that the planet has not warmed, it is full steam ahead for the wealth redistribution and distraction agenda. This is the fruit of an unholy marriage between science and politics, where science (supposed to be about truth) goes to bed with politics (a bastion of lies, self interest and megalomania) and produces this bastard child.

  

This will be the end of the world as we know it

Happy Easter everyone!

Paul asked me a month ago whether Global Warming was still happening and if it was still a threat (or something similar - I was drinking his scotch neat at the time). Being a true friend, I promised him an updated analysis for this very blog on Easter Day. There is no better way to celebrate new life than to vow to protect it and the environment on which it depends.

Lowest Extent of Arctic Ice in Satellite Records

The National Snow and Ice Data Centre reported on 19 march 2015 that the winter of 2015 had the lowest ice extent since satellite records began.

The maximum extent is 1.10 million square kilometers (425,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average of 15.64 million square kilometers (6.04 million square miles) and 130,000 square kilometers (50,200 square miles) below the previous lowest maximum that occurred in 2011. This year’s maximum occurred 15 days earlier than the 1981 to 2010 average date of March 12.

Arctic Sea News

They will shortly release their analysis of the ice extents for 2015, but it is not expected to be a harbinger of an ice free Arctic in a few years. There is a lot of variability in ice extent in the Arctic. To get a better feel for the trend, the chart below shows the 2015 extent relative to other years and the median over the winter months. You can see clear fluctuation in levels, but overall a clear trend towards less ice. The climate is warming.

Antarctic Ice is getting Thinner

Scientists have been reporting that Antarctic ice sheets have grown in the last three years, and sceptics have seized on this to prove that the climate is not warming. However, what this does represent is a call to arms for scientists to understand what is actually happening. British scientists reported in February that the continent's biggest glacier has thinned by 10 metres and shrunk 5 km inland

Researchers from University College, London and the British Antarctic Survey report in Science magazine today that the Pine Island glacier, the largest in the west Antarctic, has lost 32 cubic kilometres of ice over a 5,000 sq km area since 1992. The glacier is one of the fastest in the world, flowing at 8 metres a day.

Antarctic ice cap is getting thinner

Perhaps the Arctic ice is thickening then? Not so.

The climate is warming!

Polar Jet Stream Slowing Down

Both poles have a jet stream - a high altitude wind circling the poles. Of late scientists have learned how this affects weather by moving weather systems around the globe. What does seem to be happening is that is is slowing down, and this is keeping weather systems stationary or slowed.

There is strong agreement in the scientific community that the most immediate cause of the drought in California—and western heat more broadly—is the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge.” The RRR, as it’s called for short, is a product of unusual jetstream behavior that scientists are linking to many complex factors including Arctic warming and warmer atmospheric conditions over the northeast Pacific.

The Warm West, Cool East US Temperature Divide

As they slow, the streams meander further from the poles than before, sucking Arctic air south in some places and holding weather patterns still in others; changing climate. There are some theories to suggest this slowing is caused by the warming Arctic. More study is need to know if this is the case and what it means long term.

The Ocean is Warming

The mean air temperature has been increasing all of last century, but slowed down noticeably towards the end of the century. Where had the heat been going?

Faced with a challenge, the scientists have had to adjust their theories, and early in the new century, the theory emerged that the additional heat was going into the ocean. Theories are not enough in true scientific enquiry, so research grants were obtained to measure the ocean surface temperature. The theories were right - a tipping point in atmosphere heat had been hit and the excess was transferred down to the oceans.

What is the implication of this? That is still being determined, but one this is for certain - it will not be good. 3.5 billion people receive their primary food source from the sea. Fish are sensitive to heat, and will migrate to stay in their comfort zone. Those that can't (e.g. at the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef) will perish, or be overwhelmed by invading species.

 

USA Republicans Deal With Climate Science

The US Republicans are well aware of the level of scientific inquiry that climate change has brought about, and they do no like it. However, they are nothing if not resourceful.

They are about to bring the "Secret Science" act to the house. This act will require government agencies to ignore all science that is not "verified repeatable testable science". At first, this looks like a good idea. After all the point of science is that theories are testable and only accepted as long as no tests fail. However, the subtext is that climate change science is about what will happen, and it will only be repeatable if we actually heat the planet, and not once but many times. Wildlife must actually go extinct, and not once, but many times. Billions of people must actually be dislocated, not once by many times. Only then, will the GOP accept that climate change is real and a threat. But then, they will refuse to take action on it until repeatable science shows that doing something is better than doing nothing.

Of course, they will not apply the same criteria to their defence budget. In the case that the billions of dislocated people refused to die quietly on a different continent, the GOP will maintain a large defence force to deal with the unrest caused. That science is untested, but it would be crazy not to tote guns this such an apocalyptic future!

The Verdict

So, will this be the end of the world? Not at all; the world has been a lot warmer than this in the past. Perhaps the end of human civilization? Again unlikely; not all arable land will be rendered uninhabitable. Perhaps the end of the current world order? Very likely - the world order has changed dramatically every 50 years for the last few centuries? There is no reason to think that it won't do so twice more before the full impact of global warming is felt, but that would happen without global warming too. Global warming will have a devastating impact on the remaining wildlife on this planet - they have no where to go as their habitat changes. It will change our farming and fishing practices as we have to rearrange them to suit the new climate. It will result in civil unrest and war as people living in areas that get too much or too little water have to move. This could look like an apocalypse.

Unless...

Who amongst you would...

... give his friend a Linked In endorsement when he asked for a movie?

That said, I think it is way cool that I have Prestags Analysis and EDEE Configuration skills. I am eagerly waiting those who politely endorse me from time to time to pick those!

Quiz - what is it?

Can you guess?

Food - 2 for the price of 1

The many faces of Europe

My dear friend worries about New Scientist as it regularly reports on science which suggests truths different to his world view. This week has an intriguing article on what might replace the nation state. As part of their analysis, they created this clever Youtube. You have to watch it a few times looking at different parts. It suggests that areas remain static for quite a few hundred years before changing radically in one frame.

Later on they have a diagram showing a potential future look for Europe. I have not found the origin of this, but Spain looks like a loser.

But what does it mean?

In answering my dear friends queries on the implication of basing climate scepticism on falsehoods, I quoted a fictional guru. When I first heard him say these lines, I remember at the time (and I was sitting next to my dear friend in Manuka cinema in 1976) "but what does that mean"? I have a habit of over analysing fictions which purport to wisdom, Dr Who being a case in point, and so why not do it on this blog, so my dear friend will have no trouble getting me certified when my time comes.

Who is the more foolish? The fool, or the fool who follows him?

When making sure I had the text right (which is wrong in most places; I had to go the Youttube ultimately to confirm), I found that this quote is discussed at length in many blogs. The common thought is that the answer was meant to be "The fool who follows", but on second consideration the answer is far more  complex.

I think the meaning in the movie was that the first fool was an unconcious fool; he was on some damn fool quest and there was on very long odds daring to take on the Empire. The second fool, by implication, should know better, and perhaps is consciously making a foolish choice, so is more foolish. If the ends justify the means, Obi Wan was no fool. He became more powerful than Darth Vader could possibly imagine, and was able to guide and inspire the rebellion in ways the old man would not, even, in the end, to rescue the soul of his dear friend, Anikin. The fools who followed (discounting droids) also greatly benefitted with ascent to knighthood (Luke) and royalty (Han). Both struggled with the "follow the fool" and resisted it briefly, before returned to the quest, even at a time when success seemed unlikely.

Did Benjamin Franklin qualify as a fool thinking that 13 disunited, vascillating colonies could take on the might of the British empire? What about the fools who followed him? Many paid the ultimate price, most were probably no better off under the new administration. Undoubtedly their descendants (and the political world as a whole) were the true beneficiaries. Is that foolish, to overthrow an order so as to chase a dream? What would a wise man have done in the situation? Honestly I can't say - maybe have a bet both ways.

Let's head to the current era, where we have a fool for a Prime Minister. Ignoring the best advice of leading economists around the world, he unwound a cap and trade system that was reducing carbon emisions. His argument: it was a tax that clobbered the economy. He firmly believes that not responding to long term threat is wise, and that facts and science are mere politics that he can defeat. A true fool, and like Obi Wan, one who cannot be dissuaded from his damded fool quest.

What of those who follow him. I argue that as the borders of Australia are open (to departures in any event), we are all "the fools who follow him". Is there any wisdom in overthrowing an order to chase a dream? In this case, certainly not. Science is free and globalised so Tony can't stop the growth of knowledge. His foolish will be his downfall as he finds he is increasingly isolated in a world that takes science seriously. In a sense, we fools can wait. Wisdom will return at the next election, or perhaps the one after. (Does anyone else think that his interest in Australia returning to military involvement in the middle east might e a ploy to maintain a sense of fear and uncertainty that workds in the favour of governments in elections?)

Let me dare to be hugely controversial now and look at the Catholic Church's review of the family. Certainly, the current view of a "regular family", even though the terms are modern, are very ancient. However, they would only have ever applied to the wealthy. The poor made do with the little they had, and I imagine were very pragmatic in acknowledging where the next meal came from. The wealth of the industrial revolution changed this and the "regular family" became the norm for a century or so. The challenges and opportuities of the modern times has seen it decline again, the here Pope Francis jumps in an calls a Synod for later this year to see what can be done to better include irregular families in the life of the Church.

Only a fool would take on this traditional a teaching, even as pope. And yet, the Chruch does not brook dissent, so we are the fools who follow him. Is it wise to be a fool (and follow meekly) in this case, or should we change the order to chase a dream? He looks young enough to be with us for a while yet, so waiting for a change will see us wait for a long time. Certainly I expect him to be Pope long after the scrapping of Tony Abbott, and the reintroduction of science to Australian government.

If you strike me down,
I shall become more powerful
that you can possibly imagine

The Evil Minoans

The Python has alleged a "warming trend" based on some selective data over the last 22 years. If there is global warming over the last 22 years, what is he comparing these 22 years with? Actually, he is comparing them with nothing, just the 22 year sample.

How can you get a planet wide apocalyptic trend from 22 years? You can't. Let us leave aside Python's selective data and love for erroneous computer models, and look at some real science.

There is a real science called paleoclimatology, where past temperatures and other climate information is determined from analysis of ice core samples. The benefit of this kind of analysis is that you can go back hundreds of thousands of years and study some real samples, not a pathetic 22 years. You can also look at human civilisation to test the 'man made' allegation.

As ice forms from the incremental buildup of annual layers of snow, lower layers are older than upper, and an ice core contains ice formed over a range of years. The properties of the ice and the  inclusions within the ice can then be used to reconstruct a climatic record over the age range of the core, normally through isotopic analysis. This enables the reconstruction of local temperature records and the history of atmospheric composition.

Inclusions in the snow of each year remain in the ice, such as wind-blown dust, ash, pollen, bubbles of atmospheric gas and radioactive substances. The variety of climatic proxies is greater than in any other natural recorder of climate, such as tree rings or sediment layers. These include (proxies for) temperature, ocean volume, precipitation, chemistry and gas composition of the lower atmosphere, volcanic eruptions, solar variability, sea-surface productivity, desert extent and forest fires.

An ice core from the right site can be used to reconstruct an uninterrupted and detailed climate record extending over hundreds of thousands of years, providing information on a wide variety of aspects of climate at each point in time. It is the simultaneity of these properties recorded in the ice that makes ice cores such a powerful tool in paleoclimate research.

Ice cores from Greenland enable a sample going back 400,000 years. From this, a sub sample of 11,000 years can be used to track human civilisation. You know, those nasty humans that cause planet wide warming with all their evil factories and farting cattle. What does 11,000 years show?

What?! A Dark Ages Cooling, a Medieval Warming, a Minoan Warming, an Egyptian Cooling. Those evil minoans and their obsession with bulls. They must have created a civilisation of farting cows.

And those good old boys in the Dark Ages. We need to cure global warming by recreating a feudal economic system. Now I see why the global warming alarmists want new taxes for everyone except the rich and powerful. They can become the lords and the rest of us can be taxed back into serfs and peasants. But we will all be lovely and cool.

 

Impsie spider - huntsman

This 'little' fellow was scurrying along the side of our shed. Quite a large specimen.

 

Men in White Coats: The Prevenance Theory

Hello world, my name is Sir Ian Wilmut, (OBE FRS FMedSci FRSE) and I am an English embryologist and Chair of the Scottish Centre for Regenerative Medicine at the University of Edinburgh. I am sooo clever, I cloned a little sheep called Dolly. Don't worry, I just want to cure all the terrible diseases in the world.

Hello world, my name is Dr Shoukhrat Mitalipov and I am Co-Director of the Assisted Reproductive Technologies and Embryonic Stem Cell Core Laboratory at the Oregon National Primate Research Center, Oregon Health & Science University. I am sooo clever, and more clever than Sir Wilmut. After experimenting on over 1,000 monkey eggs I cloned human cells. Don't worry, I just want to cure all the terrible diseases in the world.

Hello world, my name is Dr. Stephen Minger and I am Global Head of Research and Development for the Cell Technologies business of GE Healthcare Life Sciences. I am sooo clever. I used to be the Director of the Stem Cell Biology Laboratory at Kings College London where I created human-animal hybrid embryos. Don't worry, I just want to cure all the terrible diseases in the world.

Hello world, my name is Dr Jeffery K. Taubenberger. I am chief of the Division of Molecular Pathology at the US Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP). I am sooo clever. I used the remains of soldiers and indians who had died from the Spanish flu, and I then became the first scientist to sequence the genome of the influenza virus which caused the 1918 pandemic of Spanish flu. My colleagues at a high-level biosafety lab in Winnipeg, Canada resurrected the virus and tested it on monkeys to confirm that it was still deadly. I published the sequence for the whole world to use. Don't worry, I just want to cure all the terrible diseases in the world including the ones I create.

I have a theory about the men in white coats, and I call it the Prevenance Theory. The theory is:

1. The real state of what has been achieved in the biological and genetic sciences in some laboratory somewhere in the world is at least 10-15 years ahead of what has been disclosed to the public.
2. Biological and genetic science operates independently of government supervision and regulation. There are few regulatory controls in any event, and the official policy in most so called advanced countries is to leave ethical decision making to the ethics of the scientists. What regulations do exist are easily ignored by science undertaken privately by trans national corporations.
3. There is virtually no ethical decision making on the part of the scientists. There is none on the part of the corporations that fund and undertake most biological and genetic research. In short: if it can be done, it will be done.

So what does this mean? It means we have little idea what is really going on, but we can rest assured that lots of biological and genetic experiments are being undertaken by people who like to play God and are doing so unrestrained by ethical considerations.

Why do I think this is all going to end in tears.

Lots and lots of tears.

The Bedwetters are Wrong and the Hockey Stick is Broken

It seems that every few days there is news of another scandal involving the fabrication of "evidence" in support of alleged man made global warming. Today I read about the Data Rigging Scandal in the US Temperature Records but this is only the latest in a long line of political interference with science.

I don't understand why people are shocked about this, especially with something that is patently dodgy like alleged man made global warming. Science, like any profession, is just as likely to be prone to human failings leading to corruption, misconduct and criminality as any other profession. And this is more so when there is an obvious global agenda propagated by a small number of wealthy interests that want to socially engineer (and tax the crap out of) the unfortunate majority of the world's population.  It is the same wealthy special interest groups and corrupt governments that are bankrolling most of science, and guess what: they only fund research that fits in with their own agenda. Try applying for a grant to study the effects of solar cycles on planetary temperature (as distinct from an anthropocentric research project) and see how far you get.

I am sick and tired of the bedwetters (to copy the phrase used by a well known politically incorrect climate change sceptic) carrying on about alleged man made global warming while more and more data comes in showing there is no global warming. And, because the bedwetters love computer models (as distinct from actual measuresements) enough time has now passed to test the stupid and ill-informed models propagated by elitists like Al Gore (I bet he and his 5 mansions and lear jet has a small carbon foot print).

 
All of Gore's fear mongering predictions have failed. The best was the 2007 prediction that the arctic summer would be ice free by 2013. Wrong. the latest satellite data show that Arctic ice cover has actually expanded 50 percent over 2012 levels. In fact, during October 2013, sea-ice levels grew at the fastest pace since records began in 1979. And what about all the polar bears would die. No, the bears live and maybe they can move to Egypt where Cairo just had its first snowfall in 100 years.

The worst predictions have come from the United Nations, that organization that has never seen a third world family it did not want to sterilise. The UN claimed in its latest global-warming report to be 95 percent sure that human emissions of carbon dioxide were to blame for rising temperatures. Those claims, now deservedly widely laughed at around the world, were made despite the fact that every single one of its computer models has been entirely discredited by the lack of warming for the last 17 years. Many experts are now even predicting global cooling.

Yes, you heard correctly. Monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies (average global temperature) as measured by Satellite (a measurement, not a model) show that there has been no global warming for the last 17 years.

There is no hockey stick. And what are the bedwetters doing now? They have stopped saying "global warming" and have started saying "climate change".

Hang on, is this science? When the evidence doesn’t support your conclusion you change the name of the phenomenon. Recently President Obama (I guess he needs a 'carbon' tax because he has bankrupted America) said the record cold in the United States was evidence of global warming. HANG ON, so if temperatures go up it is evidence of global warming and if temperatures go down it is evidence of global warming. Bullshit: they are making it up as they go along.

My favourite news item of January 2014 has been about the Russian ship MV Akademik Shokalskly stranded in ice in the Antarctica sea. What has not been so widely reported (typical of a media largely owned by the same elitists that promote the global warming myth) is that the ship was full of global warming sycophants led by Chris Turney, a professor of climate change (there really is such a thing: amazing what money can buy) at UNSW.

The  purpose of the expedition was to retrace the Mawson expedition of 1912 and take duplicate "readings" of that expedition in order to show how much global warming has effected Antarctica in the last century. However, they are comparing data from 100 years ago when there was no sea ice in the same location and they proved the opposite of what they wanted. Absolutely brilliant, you couldn't make this stuff up if you tried!

The next time people feel warm or  hot I suggest they walk outside and take a look at the sky. Yes, there is a bloody great bright hot thing up there. It is a star which we call the sun. It generates heat. Now compare atmospheric CO2 levels and global temperature (no correlation) with  solar irradiance  and global temperature (a correlation). Not that hard: I suggest UNSW appoint a professor of solar irradiance.

It is high time we move on from the global warming fraud and focus on real problems. The nuclear tragedy at Fukushima, for example, is a genuine global problem that deserves attention and massive resources. The dumping of highly radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean at horrendous levels every single day now constitutes a potential trigger to a process of global radioactive contamination. This is the sort of thing that bedwetters need to worry about.

 

A different point of view

I find Paul such an intriguing friend because we always has a different point of view. Take the Interesting Ship: Paul sees it from above - I see it from a dog's eye view:

(It is in the picture - right underneath the middle of the arch a slightly obscured by the swing bridge.)

Take the classic Australian meal. Whilst I do a leg of lamb a few times a year, I find myself drawn to the diversity of eat out options to find the many tastes I have not sampled before:

Take Prestags: Paul sees a nice system and a collectable. I see a playable game worthy of an online version - as a playable game, not a collectible.

Take Empire: Paul has fun playing hunter against my swarm of transports. I focus on expansion and industrial optimisation.

Take the IPCC: I am fascinated what 1000 top scientists can achieve in collaboration. Paul sees the opportunity for unaccountable manipulation of world opinion.

I am intrigued to see what Paul makes of a software conference.

No Comrade, Ship is Real

Thygocanberra doubted the photograph of the awesome / epic ship but it was real.

Ship was the Russian space control ship the "Kosmonavt Yuri Gagarin".

From Wikipedia: Kosmonavt Yuri Gagarin (Russian: «Космона́вт Ю́рий Гага́рин») was a Soviet space control-monitoring ship that was devoted to detecting and receiving satellite communications. Named after cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin, she was completed in December 1971 to support the Soviet space program. The ship also conducted upper atmosphere and outer space research.

It had very distinguishable looks due to two extremely large and two smaller parabolic "dish" antennas placed on top of the hull.

In Soviet times, the Kosmonavt Yuri Gagarin was the world's largest communications ship and was the flagship of a fleet of communications ships. These ships greatly extended the tracking range when the orbits of cosmonauts and unmanned missions were not over the USSR. In 1975, the ship was a part of the Soviet-American Apollo-Soyuz joint test program.

The communications ships belonged to the Soviet Academy of Sciences. The maritime part fell under the responsibility of the Baltic- and Black sea shipping. The ships had home ports in the Ukraine (Kosmonavt Yuri Gagarin and the other surveillance ship Akademik Sergei Korolev), so after the fall of the Soviet Union they were transferred to Ukraine – ending their role in spaceflight.

She was sold for scrap shortly after the break-up of the Soviet Union along with the Akademik Sergei Korolev.

Awesome Photograph

Sometimes you see a photograph of something that is just awesome. Or, as I think the teenage kids would say, is just epic. This is awesome / epic and I want one:

Not of Ducks ... of Emus

Health and fitness wise, PRESTAGS knows that it is definitely downhill after 50.

This last week I have had sore joints, especially knees and knuckles. The usual 1000 mg of Krill Oil has not been doing the trick.

Today my ever considerate wife has purchased some indigenous medicine: Emu Oil.

The Emu Oil is described as "a traditional Australian Aboriginal relief for the pain of arthritis, muscular aches, insect bites and for the symptomatic relief of dry skin and minor burns". I don't know what the biochemistry is behind Emu Oil, but there do appear to be patents and scientific papers on this subject.

I can personally attest to the efficacy of  Tea Tree Oil (Melaleuca Oil), and of Papaw Ointment (Carica Papaya) so I am prepared to give Emu Oil a go.

Speaking of emus, I would love to try emu eggs, fried or in an omlette.

New Categories for Thygocanberra

I have created twelve (yes 12!) new formal categories especially for Thygocanberra:

1. The Moon
2. Ducks
3. Hockey Sticks
4. Heresy
5. Apostasy
6. Schismatics
7. ACT (Grand Duchy)
8. Crime & Punishment
9. Elephants
10. Liturgical Music
11. Men in White Coats
12. Little House on the Prairie

Steak Knives? Yes, THERE IS MORE. I will undertake to write a post in each of these twelve categories within three months if PythonMagus does the same!