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Thursday, 12 November 2015

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PythonMagus

To be fair, I didn't have a turn to play and there was nothing much on the blog to read. I should have been watching James Bond in Gold Class. So when life gives you lemons, you write an article.

The Halley reference is simply because I have recently seen the Cosmos episode on him, and wanted to add my own congratulations to his clever use of science.

I agree market crashes will continue to happen, and after they happen the pundits will always ask, "How could be have been so stupid?", but the issue is knowing when to bail. In the mean time, "what are economic fundamentals?" is the real question. The answer can only be "trust between all people of the world". The amount of trust needed so far exceeds the amount of precious metals available that they are only minor players in this global economy.

I join Pope Francis in his call for justice and good faith between all people. Otherwise, like Paul, I watch the markets nervously. I'm not re-entering the stock market until Easter or until the correction happens, and will defer that if the US keeps up their monetary policy of pumping cash.

Paul

The 11th of November came and went, and I was going to do a post and admit that my prediction was wrong. Unfortunately I was too busy with a trial at work.

The Python has admirably pointed out my error, and I cop everything he has thrown at me.

So what now? I still think the big crash is coming, and soon. I underestimated the extent to which the central banks would go to prop up their stock markets with both money printing and now blatant intervention. The prices are now so artificial, mostly because of selected strategic interventions which derive ultimately from the central banks, that they can hardly be called markets. These artificial markets are not a reflection of the health of the world economies, which continue to deteriorate, but for now are just preventing major bank runs and derivative calamities.

The economic fundamentals continue to get worse every month, and the misreporting of data to make things appear better has become a joke (aka the recent alleged US employment data). Gold and silver are manipulated, to prop up the US dollar, however the ratio of paper gold to real gold is now so large that only a moron would believe paper gold is as good as the real thing.

It is impossible to maintain a complete fantasy forever. Reality always catches up, and it will soon. But no more dates from me, only "soon".

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